Analytics · The Human Atlas

The six dials

272 factors is too many to act on. They resolve into six readings. Each dial says what tight and loose mean, which sectors it governs, and the mistake people usually make reading it.

Cost of money

How expensive is it to borrow, and where is that heading?

The price of money is the foundation everything else is priced against. When it is cheap, houses, businesses and long-dated growth stories are all worth more. When it is dear, the reverse — …

10 factors · governs 4 sectors 11

Price pressure

Are prices still rising faster than the target, and why?

Inflation decides whether the central bank has the freedom to help the economy or must keep restraining it. It also decides whether a wage rise is real. Its composition matters as much as it…

11 factors · governs 4 sectors 12

Growth and jobs

Is the economy adding income, or shedding it?

Employment is income, income is spending, and spending is two-thirds of the economy. This dial is where a slowdown becomes visible to ordinary people rather than only to markets. It has beco…

12 factors · governs 4 sectors 13

Credit and plumbing

Is money still flowing, and is anything jamming?

Most crises are not about valuation; they are about someone being unable to fund themselves. This dial watches whether lenders are still lending, whether spreads are widening, and whether th…

13 factors · governs 4 sectors 11

Earnings and what you pay for them

Are profits growing, and how much is being charged for them?

Over long horizons a stock market is corporate profits multiplied by whatever people will pay for a dollar of them. Profits are the durable part; the multiple is sentiment and rates. Right n…

11 factors · governs 4 sectors 16

Risk appetite and positioning

Who already owns this, and what are they forced to do next?

A large share of daily market movement has nothing to do with the economy. It is the mechanical consequence of who is positioned how: funds that must sell when volatility rises, dealers hedg…

16 factors · governs 2 sectors

When the dials combine

Pairs of readings describe a regime. The value is not the label — it is knowing which three numbers to check next.

Reading	Regime and what it means	Check first
Cost of money loosening + price pressure cooling	Easing into a soft landing The most favourable configuration for almost everything in this Atlas. Housing turns first, then consumer durables, then hiring. The risk is that it is already priced.	Mortgage rates and applications, Market breadth, Existing and new home sales
Cost of money loosening + price pressure hot	Easing into inflation The central bank is either responding to something breaking in credit, or has lost its anchor. Check the credit dial before assuming the first. If credit is calm, this is the fiscal-dominance chain, and long rates will not cooperate.	Credit spreads, Term premium, Inflation expectations
Cost of money tight + growth weakening	Squeeze The classic pre-recession configuration. The question is only whether the central bank pivots before the labour market gives way. Watch continuing claims weekly.	Initial and continuing jobless claims, Bank lending standards (SLOOS), Credit spreads
Credit stress rising, everything else calm	Something specific has broken Do not generalise yet. Identify whether it is one institution, one sector, or the funding system. Bank stress and commercial property have been the recurring candidates.	Bank failures and systemic stress, Commercial real estate and office loans, Repo and money-market rates, Private credit and shadow banking
Earnings narrowing + risk appetite crowded	Fragile Concentration and leverage on the same side. Nothing predicts timing, but the size of a move when it comes is larger than the news that triggers it. Positioning, not valuation, is the thing to watch.	Index concentration, Market breadth, Hedge fund gross leverage and crowding, Earnings dispersion between AI and non-AI cohorts
Risk appetite washed out + credit calm	Mechanical, not fundamental A fall with no credit confirmation is usually positioning. These reverse faster than they fall. The discomfort of acting here is the reason the opportunity exists.	Credit spreads, Implied volatility (VIX), Retail investor sentiment (AAII), Fund manager survey (BofA)

Transmission chains

What actually happens, in order, when a dial moves. Each chain names the household consequence, the sectors on both sides, the evidence that would confirm it, and the evidence that would prove it wrong. Several have failed before, and those failures are recorded on the chain page.

Cost of money

The cost of money falls

Trigger: Policy rate cut, or the market pricing a series of cuts, without a recession

Two-year yield falls as the market prices the Fed's path
Mortgage rates follow the ten-year down, with a lag and a wider spread than history suggests
Housing transactions recover before prices do — the lock-in effect breaks as the gap between existing and new mortgage rates narrows
Refinancing activity releases household cash flow, which shows up in discretionary spending two quarters later
2 more steps →

Confirm with

Mortgage rates and applications, Existing and new home sales, Homebuilder sentiment and pending home sales, Market breadth

Falsified if

Mortgage rates failing to follow the policy rate down, because the term premium is rising faster than the Fed is cutting. If long rates rise while the Fed cuts, this chain does not…

Price pressure

Price pressure returns

Trigger: Two consecutive core prints above 0.3% month-on-month, or a jump in expectations

Rate-cut expectations are priced out; the two-year yield rises
Real yields rise, which is the actual discount rate for equities
The equity multiple compresses — the effect lands hardest on the longest-duration assets
Households see real incomes squeezed; low-income spending contracts first and visibly
2 more steps →

Confirm with

Consumer Price Index (CPI), Inflation expectations, Wage growth, Retail gasoline prices, ISM services PMI

Falsified if

Shelter continuing to decelerate. Because shelter is a third of CPI and lags market rents by about a year, a re-acceleration that is not visible in current rent indices will not pe…

Growth and jobs

The labour market gives way

Trigger: Continuing claims rising for a month while hiring stays frozen; unemployment up half a point from its low

Quits fall first — workers stop believing they can find something better
Hiring freezes before firing starts; job postings fall while payrolls still look fine
Unemployment drifts up; the Sahm threshold is crossed
Consumer confidence falls, and discretionary spending follows within a quarter
2 more steps →

Confirm with

Initial and continuing jobless claims, Job openings (JOLTS), Unemployment rate and the Sahm rule, Subprime auto and credit-card delinquencies, The K-shaped consumer

Falsified if

Unemployment rising because the labour force is growing rather than because people are being fired. Check participation and the breakeven payroll number before concluding anything.…

Credit and plumbing

Something breaks in credit

Trigger: High-yield spreads widening 100bp in a month, or a funding market dislocation

Spreads widen before equities fall; the two usually reconnect within weeks
Banks tighten lending standards, which shows up in the quarterly survey with a lag
Refinancing windows close for the weakest borrowers — commercial property and leveraged loans first
Private credit marks lag public prices, so the losses appear late and in a lump
2 more steps →

Confirm with

Credit spreads, Bank lending standards (SLOOS), Bank failures and systemic stress, Repo and money-market rates, Commercial real estate and office loans

Falsified if

Spreads widening while funding markets stay orderly and bank equity holds up. Spread widening without a funding problem is repricing, not a crisis.…

Earnings and what you pay for them

The AI build-out slows

Trigger: Hyperscaler capex guidance cut, or AI revenue disclosures lagging depreciation

Semiconductor orders fall; the book-to-bill ratio turns before revenue does
Memory and HBM prices fall, which is the most cyclical part of the most cyclical industry
Data-centre construction, power contracts and equipment orders are deferred
Utilities that signed load-growth contracts face stranded capacity; the power trade unwinds
2 more steps →

Confirm with

Hyperscaler capex, depreciation, and AI monetisation, Semiconductor sales and equipment book-to-bill, Memory and HBM pricing, Hyperscaler cloud growth and backlog, Data-centre power and grid constraints

Falsified if

AI revenue growing faster than depreciation, and capex funded from operating cash flow rather than debt or vendor financing. If the spenders are self-funding and monetising, the an…

Price pressure

Trade barriers rise

Trigger: New tariff schedules, or retaliation by a major trading partner

Importers front-run the deadline; port volumes spike, then collapse
Import prices rise; goods inflation returns after two years of falling
Margins compress for retailers and manufacturers who cannot pass costs on
Exporters face retaliation, concentrated in agriculture and aircraft
2 more steps →

Confirm with

Tariffs and trade policy, Import and export prices, Port container volumes and rail carloads, ISM manufacturing PMI, Supply-chain stress

Falsified if

Effective collected tariff rates staying far below announced rates, through exemptions and transhipment. Announcements are not policy until they are collected.…

Cost of money

The bond market sets the long rate

Trigger: Term premium rising while the policy rate falls; weak long-dated auctions

Long yields rise despite central bank easing
Mortgage rates rise with them, so housing does not respond to the rate cuts
Equity multiples compress because the discount rate is set at the long end
Gold and hard assets re-rate as a hedge against the currency rather than against inflation
2 more steps →

Confirm with

Term premium, Treasury auctions, Sovereign credit ratings, Gold, Federal deficit and debt trajectory

Falsified if

Foreign and domestic demand at auctions staying strong with normal tails. Japan has run far larger debt ratios for thirty years without this chain running, because the debt is held…

Risk appetite and positioning

A funding currency turns

Trigger: Bank of Japan tightening, or sharp yen appreciation

Trades funded in cheap yen become unprofitable and are closed
Selling hits assets unrelated to Japan, purely because they were funded there
Volatility spikes, triggering mechanical selling by volatility-targeting funds
The move is violent, brief, and largely reverses — unless it coincides with a real economic shock

Confirm with

Bank of Japan and the yen carry trade, Major currency pairs, Implied volatility (VIX), Japanese government bonds and fiscal stress, Hedge fund gross leverage and crowding

Falsified if

Credit spreads staying tight through the equity fall. A positioning unwind does not widen credit; an economic shock does.…

Growth and jobs

The care economy runs out of people

Trigger: Immigration restriction plus accelerating over-80 population growth

Care wages rise faster than general wages, because the work cannot be offshored or deferred
The cost of home care, nursing homes and childcare rises above what households can pay
Family members — usually daughters in midlife — leave paid work to provide it unpaid
Female labour-force participation falls, reducing measured GDP and household income
2 more steps →

Confirm with

Immigration policy, Senior-living occupancy and care wages, Childcare and tuition inflation, Labour-force participation and labour supply, Wage growth

Falsified if

Care wages rising without care employment falling, which would mean supply is responding to price. Watch employment in the sector, not just its cost.…