Semiconductor cycle. The most cyclical industry in the index and now its largest; inventory corrections come every three to four years.
What to watch: SIA sales; memory prices; foundry utilisation; SOX index. It arrives monthly, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 4 — Stock and sector specific: Moves one company or one group, not the market. Any factor here becomes tier one if it gets large enough — a bank failure and a pandemic both started as somebody's sector news.
Its neighbourhood
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What moves it
Sectors it moves most
Trends tracked by this
Also in Technology and structural forces
- AI investment cycle
- Index concentration
- Demographics and retirement flows
- Immigration policy
- Energy transition and climate policy
- Rise of passive and index investing
- AI adoption and labour substitution
- Consumer preference shifts
- Data-centre power and grid constraints
- Memory and HBM pricing
- AI labour displacement and the entry-level job
- Birth rates and household formation
- Semiconductor sales and equipment book-to-bill
- EV sales share and battery pack prices
- Marriage and birth counts
- College enrolment and the demographic cliff