Semiconductor sales and equipment book-to-bill. The industry's own cycle gauge; the SOX leads the Nasdaq.
What to watch: SIA monthly sales; SEMI equipment bookings; SOX index. It arrives monthly, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 3 — Flows and mechanics: Moves prices without changing anything fundamental, on horizons from hours to weeks. Who is forced to buy or sell, and when. Ignore this tier and market moves will regularly look inexplicable.
Its neighbourhood
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Chains it would confirm
Sectors it moves most
Also in Technology and structural forces
- AI investment cycle
- Index concentration
- Demographics and retirement flows
- Immigration policy
- Energy transition and climate policy
- Rise of passive and index investing
- Semiconductor cycle
- AI adoption and labour substitution
- Consumer preference shifts
- Data-centre power and grid constraints
- Memory and HBM pricing
- AI labour displacement and the entry-level job
- Birth rates and household formation
- EV sales share and battery pack prices
- Marriage and birth counts
- College enrolment and the demographic cliff