A documented sequence, not a forecast. It states what would falsify it, and where it has failed before.
Trigger
Hyperscaler capex guidance cut, or AI revenue disclosures lagging depreciation
How it runs
- Semiconductor orders fall; the book-to-bill ratio turns before revenue does
- Memory and HBM prices fall, which is the most cyclical part of the most cyclical industry
- Data-centre construction, power contracts and equipment orders are deferred
- Utilities that signed load-growth contracts face stranded capacity; the power trade unwinds
- Index concentration works in reverse — the same few names that carried the index take it down
- Because passive funds own them by weight, the drawdown reaches every retirement account
What it means for a household
Felt not as a headline but as a retirement balance. The concentration of the index means an ordinary saver's exposure to this single theme is far larger than they chose.
What would prove it wrong
Falsifier
AI revenue growing faster than depreciation, and capex funded from operating cash flow rather than debt or vendor financing. If the spenders are self-funding and monetising, the analogy to 2000 does not hold.
Where it has failed
Precedent
Every year since 2023 has produced a scare that reversed. The build-out has so far been funded from cash flow, which is the main difference from the telecom bust.
Its neighbourhood
Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.
Watch these to confirm it
If the chain is running, these move in this order.