US–China decoupling and Taiwan risk. Export controls, investment bans, and the tail risk of a Taiwan blockade over the fabs that make every advanced chip.
Contested Direction genuinely disputed. Reasonable people expect opposite outcomes. Largest effect expected 2020–2035.
Second-order effects
The single largest identifiable tail risk to the index: most AI hardware, and a large share of all electronics, depends on one island. Defence budgets rise structurally; rare-earth and chip supply chains duplicate at enormous cost; Chinese consumer demand fades as a growth driver for Western brands.
Its neighbourhood
Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.
Solutions it threatens
Sectors it reshapes
How to track it
If this trend is real, these are the numbers that will show it first.