Sanctions and export controls. Cuts specific companies off from markets or inputs; semiconductor controls reshape entire supply chains.
What to watch: OFAC actions; BIS entity list. It arrives event, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
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