Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. A fifth of the world's oil passes one strait; every escalation is traded through crude within minutes.
What to watch: Tanker traffic; Israel-Iran escalation; Houthi shipping attacks. It arrives event, and the effect typically lasts weeks.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
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