What this actually is
The price of crude, usually quoted as WTI (US) or Brent (international). It flows into petrol, diesel, heating, plastics, fertiliser and freight, so it is both an input cost for business and a tax on households.
Why it matters to a person
Petrol prices are the most visible price in most people's lives and move consumer sentiment and political approval more than the official inflation rate does. For the Fed, an oil spike is awkward: it raises inflation and lowers growth at once, and rate rises cannot produce more oil.
For scale
$147 in 2008, negative $37 for one day in April 2020, $130 after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Sustained moves above roughly $100 have preceded most postwar US recessions, though shale production has made the US a net exporter and softened the link.
How to read a release
Reading it
Distinguish demand-driven rises (the economy is strong) from supply-driven ones (something has broken). The first is fine for equities; the second is not.
The mechanism
Both an inflation input and a consumer tax; spikes above roughly $100 have preceded most recessions.
What to watch: WTI and Brent; OPEC+ decisions. Arrives daily; the effect typically lasts weeks. Impact tier 1 — Regime-setting: Moves everything and sets the direction for months or years. These are the discount rate, the level of earnings, the availability of credit, and the shocks large enough to stop the economy. If one of these turns, nothing else in the list matters much.
Its neighbourhood
Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.
What it moves next
Documented transmission: when this moves, these tend to move after it.
What moves it
Dials it feeds
This factor is one input to a composite reading on the Analytics page.