Agricultural commodities. Food inflation and consumer-staples margins; weather and war both work through here.
What to watch: USDA WASDE; wheat, corn, soybeans. It arrives monthly, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
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