Russia–Ukraine war and European energy. Set European gas prices, defence budgets, and grain markets since 2022; a settlement would reprice all three.
What to watch: Ceasefire talks; sanctions on Russian oil; European gas storage. It arrives event, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.