Reserve diversification and gold. Central banks buy gold at record pace after the Russia reserve freeze; trade settles in more currencies; the dollar's share of reserves drifts down.
Emerging Real but not yet at scale. The effects described are expected rather than observed. Largest effect expected 2022–2040.
Second-order effects
Slow, not sudden: the dollar stays dominant but the marginal buyer of Treasuries changes from foreign central banks to stablecoin issuers and domestic funds; gold becomes a policy asset again; a weaker dollar helps US multinationals' earnings and hurts importers' margins.
Its neighbourhood
Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.
Frictions it intensifies
These pressures get worse, or reach more people.
Solutions it accelerates
Solutions it threatens
Sectors it reshapes
How to track it
If this trend is real, these are the numbers that will show it first.