A documented sequence, not a forecast. It states what would falsify it, and where it has failed before.
Trigger
New tariff schedules, or retaliation by a major trading partner
How it runs
- Importers front-run the deadline; port volumes spike, then collapse
- Import prices rise; goods inflation returns after two years of falling
- Margins compress for retailers and manufacturers who cannot pass costs on
- Exporters face retaliation, concentrated in agriculture and aircraft
- The central bank faces a one-off price rise it cannot fix and must judge whether expectations move
- Supply chains relocate over years, which is a capital-spending boom for construction and equipment
What it means for a household
Clothes, appliances, cars, toys and food cost more. The burden falls hardest on low-income households, who spend a larger share of income on goods.
What would prove it wrong
Falsifier
Effective collected tariff rates staying far below announced rates, through exemptions and transhipment. Announcements are not policy until they are collected.
Where it has failed
Precedent
2018–19. Announced tariffs were repeatedly delayed, narrowed or exempted; the measured inflation effect was a fraction of what the headline rates implied.
Its neighbourhood
Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.
Watch these to confirm it
If the chain is running, these move in this order.