Supply-chain stress. Bottlenecks are inflation and lost sales at once; the 2021 episode drove the goods-inflation surge.
What to watch: NY Fed GSCPI; shipping rates; chip lead times. It arrives monthly, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
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