Hurricanes, wildfires, and natural disasters. Insurer losses, energy outages, and distorted data for a quarter; rebuilding is stimulus later.
What to watch: NOAA; NHC. It arrives seasonal, and the effect typically lasts weeks.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
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