Subprime auto and credit-card delinquencies. The lowest-income households default first; a rise here precedes the retail-sales slowdown by two quarters.
What to watch: NY Fed transitions to delinquency; auto ABS performance. It arrives quarterly, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
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Trends tracked by this
Also in Credit and banking
- Credit spreads
- Bank failures and systemic stress
- Bank lending standards (SLOOS)
- Bank earnings and provisions
- Corporate defaults and bankruptcies
- Private credit and shadow banking
- Commercial real estate and office loans
- Student loan repayment and delinquency
- Mortgage delinquency and foreclosure
- Insurance pricing cycle and reinsurance renewals
- Deposit betas and net interest margins