Student loan repayment and delinquency. Forty million borrowers whose payments compete with rent and consumption; policy changes move the consumer discretionary sector.
What to watch: Federal delinquency rate; IDR enrolment; forgiveness rulings. It arrives quarterly, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 4 — Stock and sector specific: Moves one company or one group, not the market. Any factor here becomes tier one if it gets large enough — a bank failure and a pandemic both started as somebody's sector news.
Its neighbourhood
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Sectors it moves most
Trends tracked by this
Also in Credit and banking
- Credit spreads
- Bank failures and systemic stress
- Bank lending standards (SLOOS)
- Bank earnings and provisions
- Corporate defaults and bankruptcies
- Private credit and shadow banking
- Commercial real estate and office loans
- Subprime auto and credit-card delinquencies
- Mortgage delinquency and foreclosure
- Insurance pricing cycle and reinsurance renewals
- Deposit betas and net interest margins