Bank earnings and provisions. Banks see the credit cycle first; their reserve builds are a forecast of defaults.
What to watch: Loan loss provisions; net interest margin; deposit trends. It arrives quarterly (opens earnings season), and the effect typically lasts weeks.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
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What moves it
Sectors it moves most
Also in Credit and banking
- Credit spreads
- Bank failures and systemic stress
- Bank lending standards (SLOOS)
- Corporate defaults and bankruptcies
- Private credit and shadow banking
- Commercial real estate and office loans
- Subprime auto and credit-card delinquencies
- Student loan repayment and delinquency
- Mortgage delinquency and foreclosure
- Insurance pricing cycle and reinsurance renewals
- Deposit betas and net interest margins