Market factor

Defence budgets and NATO spending targets

Impact tier: 2 — Directional
Category: Fiscal policy, Treasury, and tax
Watch: US NDAA; European 3.5% of GDP pledges; drone procurement
Frequency: annual
Effect lasts: years

Defence budgets and NATO spending targets. The most reliable fiscal growth line in the West for the rest of the decade.

What to watch: US NDAA; European 3.5% of GDP pledges; drone procurement. It arrives annual, and the effect typically lasts years.

It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.

Primary source — sipri.org ↗

Its neighbourhood

Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.

What moves it

War and geopolitical conflict

Sectors it moves most

Trends tracked by this

Sovereign AI and compute nationalismCompounding now. Evidence is visible in company results and data.
Drones, eVTOL, and the low-altitude economyReal but not yet at scale. The effects described are expected rather than observed.
Europe's stagnation and defence pivotDirection genuinely disputed. Reasonable people expect opposite outcomes.

Also in Fiscal policy, Treasury, and tax

Federal deficit and debt trajectoryTier 2
Treasury quarterly refunding (QRA)Tier 2
Treasury auctionsTier 2
Fiscal stimulus and spending billsTier 2
Debt ceiling and government shutdownsTier 2
Corporate and capital gains tax policyTier 2
Buyback excise tax and corporate tax changesTier 3
State and local budgets and pension gapsTier 4