Debt ceiling and government shutdowns. Usually resolved, occasionally downgrade-inducing; shutdowns delay the data the Fed depends on.
What to watch: X-date estimates; continuing resolutions. It arrives event, and the effect typically lasts weeks.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
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