State and local budgets and pension gaps. Local governments are pro-cyclical; cuts hit teachers, transit, and care first.
What to watch: Rainy-day funds; municipal pension funded ratios. It arrives annual, and the effect typically lasts years.
It sits in tier 4 — Stock and sector specific: Moves one company or one group, not the market. Any factor here becomes tier one if it gets large enough — a bank failure and a pandemic both started as somebody's sector news.
Its neighbourhood
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