Sovereign AI and compute nationalism. Governments buy their own compute, models, and chips; export controls, national champions, and Gulf capital reshape who owns intelligence.
Scaling Compounding now. Evidence is visible in company results and data. Largest effect expected 2024–2035.
Second-order effects
AI becomes an industrial-policy sector like steel or aircraft; chip demand gets a state floor; the Gulf becomes the swing financier; alignment of national models becomes a diplomatic issue.
Its neighbourhood
Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.
Frictions it intensifies
These pressures get worse, or reach more people.
Solutions it accelerates
Sectors it reshapes
How to track it
If this trend is real, these are the numbers that will show it first.