Housing starts and permits

What this actually is

How many new homes broke ground last month, and how many building permits were issued. Permits come first, then starts, then completions, then all the furniture and appliances.

Why it matters to a person

Housing is the most interest-sensitive part of the economy and therefore turns first in both directions. Residential construction employment is also a large source of jobs for workers without degrees, so this number carries social weight beyond its size.

For scale

Peaked near 2.3 million annualised in 2005, bottomed under 500,000 in 2009, and has run around 1.4 million recently — below the 1.6–1.8 million most estimates say household formation requires, which is the structural reason for the affordability crisis.

How to read a release

The mechanism

Housing leads the cycle; permits lead starts lead construction employment.

What to watch: Single-family permits. Arrives monthly; the effect typically lasts months. Impact tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.

Primary source — census.gov ↗