Housing affordability crisis. Prices and rates locked in the mortgage-rate lock-in; first-time buyer age rises past 38; supply constrained by zoning and construction costs.
Mature Already large; the question is how it resolves, not whether it happens. Largest effect expected 2020–2035.
Second-order effects
Household formation delays cascade into delayed marriage and children. Renting becomes a life stage rather than a transition, making institutional landlords a growth sector. Parents fund down payments, converting the great wealth transfer into an early inheritance. Zoning reform becomes a bipartisan cause.
Its neighbourhood
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Frictions it intensifies
These pressures get worse, or reach more people.
- Need a shared home before you can afford to own one
- The home that fit two does not fit three
- House yourself without parents and without savings
- Strangers sharing bills, chores, and a fridge
- One income now runs two homes
- A room of one's own, or no home at all
- Want a place that is not work
- The house must be emptied and sold, or lived in
Solutions it accelerates
Solutions it threatens
Sectors it reshapes
How to track it
If this trend is real, these are the numbers that will show it first.