Auto sales (SAAR) and inventories. The largest discretionary purchase; used prices lead inflation and lender losses.
What to watch: Monthly SAAR; days' supply; used-car prices (Manheim). It arrives monthly, and the effect typically lasts weeks.
It sits in tier 3 — Flows and mechanics: Moves prices without changing anything fundamental, on horizons from hours to weeks. Who is forced to buy or sell, and when. Ignore this tier and market moves will regularly look inexplicable.
Its neighbourhood
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Sectors it moves most
Also in Consumer and housing
- Retail sales
- Consumer confidence and sentiment
- Personal income, spending, and saving rate
- Consumer credit and delinquencies
- Housing starts and permits
- Existing and new home sales
- Home prices
- Mortgage rates and applications
- Household net worth and the wealth effect
- Household savings buffers
- Homeowners insurance availability and cost
- The K-shaped consumer
- Homebuilder sentiment and pending home sales
- Market rent indices
- Restaurant same-store sales and hotel RevPAR
- Card-spending panels
- Retail gasoline prices
- Residential electricity prices
- Childcare and tuition inflation
- Pet spending and vet prices