Private credit and the retailisation of private markets. Lending moves from banks to asset managers; 401(k)s and retail funds get access to private equity and credit.
Scaling Compounding now. Evidence is visible in company results and data. Largest effect expected 2022–2035.
Second-order effects
Households end up owning illiquid, opaquely marked assets in their retirement accounts; annuity balance sheets fund corporate loans; the next credit cycle plays out in vehicles that cannot be sold in a panic. Public markets shrink as companies stay private longer.
Its neighbourhood
Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.
Frictions it intensifies
These pressures get worse, or reach more people.
Solutions it accelerates
Solutions it threatens
Sectors it reshapes
How to track it
If this trend is real, these are the numbers that will show it first.