Prediction markets. Increasingly the market's own read on political and policy outcomes, traded before polls update.
What to watch: Election, Fed, and event odds. It arrives continuous, and the effect typically lasts weeks.
It sits in tier 3 — Flows and mechanics: Moves prices without changing anything fundamental, on horizons from hours to weeks. Who is forced to buy or sell, and when. Ignore this tier and market moves will regularly look inexplicable.
Its neighbourhood
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