Consensus expectations and positioning skew. Every release is priced relative to consensus; when everyone expects the same thing, the surprise is the only move left.
What to watch: Economist and strategist forecasts; year-end targets. It arrives continuous, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
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