Pension funding status. Fully funded pensions sell equities to lock in gains; the largest steady seller of stocks when markets are high.
What to watch: Milliman 100 funded ratio; de-risking flows into bonds. It arrives monthly, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 3 — Flows and mechanics: Moves prices without changing anything fundamental, on horizons from hours to weeks. Who is forced to buy or sell, and when. Ignore this tier and market moves will regularly look inexplicable.
Its neighbourhood
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Also in Positioning, sentiment, and fund flows
- Implied volatility (VIX)
- Put/call ratio
- Retail investor sentiment (AAII)
- Fund manager survey (BofA)
- Active manager exposure (NAAIM)
- Fear and greed composites
- Fund flows
- Margin debt
- Short interest
- CTA and trend-following positioning
- Volatility-control and risk-parity funds
- Dealer gamma positioning
- Foreign investor flows
- Sovereign wealth funds and pension allocation
- Retail trading activity
- Crypto markets
- ESG and thematic fund flows
- Retail options and leveraged ETF flows
- Market breadth
- Factor and style rotation