Net equity supply. The market's net share count has been shrinking for a decade; AI-era SBC and IPOs can reverse it.
What to watch: Buybacks minus issuance; stock-based compensation. It arrives quarterly, and the effect typically lasts years.
It sits in tier 3 — Flows and mechanics: Moves prices without changing anything fundamental, on horizons from hours to weeks. Who is forced to buy or sell, and when. Ignore this tier and market moves will regularly look inexplicable.
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Also in Corporate fundamentals
- Aggregate earnings and guidance
- Corporate profit margins
- Analyst earnings revisions
- Capital expenditure plans
- Share buybacks
- Dividends and payout policy
- Hyperscaler capex, depreciation, and AI monetisation
- Healthcare cost inflation
- Hyperscaler cloud growth and backlog
- Software seat counts and net revenue retention
- App downloads, time spent, and ad load
- Advertising spend and ad prices
- Patent expirations and loss of exclusivity
- Box office, concert grosses, and ticket prices
- Sports betting handle and casino win
- Senior-living occupancy and care wages
- Death rates and cremation share
- Earnings dispersion between AI and non-AI cohorts