The neutral rate (r*) debate. Whether 4% is restrictive or neutral decides how many cuts are coming; the market and the Fed have disagreed for three years.
What to watch: Fed staff estimates; Laubach-Williams; long-run dot. It arrives quarterly, and the effect typically lasts years.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.
Dials it feeds
This factor is one input to a composite reading on the Analytics page.
Also in Monetary policy (Federal Reserve)
- FOMC rate decision
- Forward guidance and the dot plot
- Fed chair press conference and testimony
- Balance sheet policy (QE / QT)
- Fed leadership and independence
- FOMC minutes
- Fed governor and regional president speeches
- Beige Book
- Fed funds futures pricing
- Fed policy framework and dissent count
- Fed chair transition and reaction function