Forward guidance and the dot plot. The projected path matters more than today's rate; a shift in the median dot reprices the whole curve.
What to watch: Summary of Economic Projections. It arrives quarterly, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 1 — Regime-setting: Moves everything and sets the direction for months or years. These are the discount rate, the level of earnings, the availability of credit, and the shocks large enough to stop the economy. If one of these turns, nothing else in the list matters much.
Its neighbourhood
Everything this entry connects to directly. Click any point to follow it.
Dials it feeds
This factor is one input to a composite reading on the Analytics page.
Also in Monetary policy (Federal Reserve)
- FOMC rate decision
- Fed chair press conference and testimony
- Balance sheet policy (QE / QT)
- Fed leadership and independence
- FOMC minutes
- Fed governor and regional president speeches
- Beige Book
- Fed funds futures pricing
- The neutral rate (r*) debate
- Fed policy framework and dissent count
- Fed chair transition and reaction function