Midterm election-year pattern. The second year of a term has been the weakest; the twelve months after midterms the strongest.
What to watch: Year-two weakness and post-midterm rally; gridlock odds. It arrives 4-year, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
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Also in Politics, regulation, and law
- Elections and the presidential cycle
- Executive orders and presidential statements
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- Elections abroad and populist swings
- Drug pricing, tariffs on pharma, and most-favoured-nation rules
- Medicare Advantage rate notice and utilisation
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