Market factor

Elections and the presidential cycle

Impact tier: 2 — Directional
Category: Politics, regulation, and law
Watch: Polls; prediction markets; year of the four-year cycle
Frequency: 2-year / 4-year
Effect lasts: months

Elections and the presidential cycle. Policy uncertainty before, sector rotation after; the third year of a term has been the strongest on average.

What to watch: Polls; prediction markets; year of the four-year cycle. It arrives 2-year / 4-year, and the effect typically lasts months.

It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.

Primary source — fec.gov ↗

Its neighbourhood

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Trends tracked by this

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Also in Politics, regulation, and law

Executive orders and presidential statementsTier 2
Legislation in CongressTier 2
Sector-specific regulationTier 4
Antitrust enforcementTier 4
Supreme Court and major rulingsTier 4
SEC rules and enforcementTier 4
Healthcare policyTier 4
Bank capital and financial regulationTier 4
State and local policyTier 4
European regulation: DMA, DSA, AI Act, CBAMTier 4
AI regulation and liabilityTier 2
Elections abroad and populist swingsTier 2
Drug pricing, tariffs on pharma, and most-favoured-nation rulesTier 4
Medicare Advantage rate notice and utilisationTier 4
Midterm election-year patternTier 2
Regulatory and statistical agency staffingTier 3