Leading Economic Index. A composite of ten leading indicators; has called recessions with a long lead and several false alarms.
What to watch: Conference Board LEI 6-month change. It arrives monthly, and the effect typically lasts months.
It sits in tier 2 — Directional: Moves the index for days or weeks. Scheduled data releases, policy decisions, global spillovers, and the prices of money and energy. This is the tier most professional attention is spent on.
Its neighbourhood
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Dials it feeds
This factor is one input to a composite reading on the Analytics page.
Also in Growth and activity
- GDP and recession risk
- ISM manufacturing PMI
- ISM services PMI
- S&P Global flash PMIs
- Regional Fed manufacturing surveys
- Industrial production and capacity utilisation
- Durable goods and core capital goods orders
- Productivity and unit labour costs
- Trucking tonnage and freight indices
- Port container volumes and rail carloads